Corrigendum: Simulation of COVID-19 propagation scenarios in the Madrid metropolitan area.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.636023.].

Evaluation of vaccination strategies for the metropolitan area of Madrid via agent-based simulation.

OBJECTIVE: We analyse the impact of different vaccination strategies on the propagation of COVID-19 within the Madrid metropolitan area, starting on 27 December 2020 and ending in Summer of 2021. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The predictions are based on simulation using EpiGraph, an agent-based COVID-19 simulator. We first summarise the different models implemented in the simulator, then provide a comprehensive description of the vaccination model and define different vaccination strategies. The simulator-including the vaccination model-is validated by comparing its results with real data from the metropolitan area of Madrid during the third COVID-19 wave. This work considers different COVID-19 propagation scenarios for a simulated population of about 5 million. RESULTS: The main result shows that the best strategy is to vaccinate first the elderly with the two doses spaced 56 days apart; this approach reduces the final infection rate by an additional 6% and the number of deaths by an additional 3% with respect to vaccinating first the elderly at the interval recommended by the vaccine producer. The reason is the increase in the number of vaccinated individuals at any time during the simulation. CONCLUSION: The existing level of detail and maturity of EpiGraph allowed us to evaluate complex scenarios and thus use it successfully to help guide the strategy for the COVID-19 vaccination campaign of the Spanish health authorities.

Computer-aided diagnostic for classifying chest X-ray images using deep ensemble learning.

BACKGROUND: Nowadays doctors and radiologists are overwhelmed with a huge amount of work. This led to the effort to design different Computer-Aided Diagnosis systems (CAD system), with the aim of accomplishing a faster and more accurate diagnosis. The current development of deep learning is a big opportunity for the development of new CADs. In this paper, we propose a novel architecture for a convolutional neural network (CNN) ensemble for classifying chest X-ray (CRX) images into four classes: viral Pneumonia, Tuberculosis, COVID-19, and Healthy. Although Computed tomography (CT) is the best way to detect and diagnoses pulmonary issues, CT is more expensive than CRX. Furthermore, CRX is commonly the first step in the diagnosis, so it's very important to be accurate in the early stages of diagnosis and treatment. RESULTS: We applied the transfer learning technique and data augmentation to all CNNs for obtaining better performance. We have designed and evaluated two different CNN-ensembles: Stacking and Voting. This system is ready to be applied in a CAD system to automated diagnosis such a second or previous opinion before the doctors or radiology's. Our results show a great improvement, 99% accuracy of the Stacking Ensemble and 98% of accuracy for the the Voting Ensemble. CONCLUSIONS: To minimize missclassifications, we included six different base CNN models in our architecture (VGG16, VGG19, InceptionV3, ResNet101V2, DenseNet121 and CheXnet) and it could be extended to any number as well as we expect extend the number of diseases to detected. The proposed method has been validated using a large dataset created by mixing several public datasets with different image sizes and quality. As we demonstrate in the evaluation carried out, we reach better results and generalization compared with previous works. In addition, we make a first approach to explainable deep learning with the objective of providing professionals more information that may be valuable when evaluating CRXs.

Assessing population-sampling strategies for reducing the COVID-19 incidence.

As long as critical levels of vaccination have not been reached to ensure heard immunity, and new SARS-CoV-2 strains are developing, the only realistic way to reduce the infection speed in a population is to track the infected individuals before they pass on the virus. Testing the population via sampling has shown good results in slowing the epidemic spread. Sampling can be implemented at different times during the epidemic and may be done either per individual or for combined groups of people at a time. The work we present here makes two main contributions. We first extend and refine our scalable agent-based COVID-19 simulator to incorporate an improved socio-demographic model which considers professions, as well as a more realistic population mixing model based on contact matrices per country. These extensions are necessary to develop and test various sampling strategies in a scenario including the 62 largest cities in Spain; this is our second contribution. As part of the evaluation, we also analyze the impact of different parameters, such as testing frequency, quarantine time, percentage of quarantine breakers, or group testing, on sampling efficacy. Our results show that the most effective strategies are pooling, rapid antigen test campaigns, and requiring negative testing for access to public areas. The effectiveness of all these strategies can be greatly increased by reducing the number of contacts for infected individual.

Detection and analysis of COVID-19 in medical images using deep learning techniques.

The main purpose of this work is to investigate and compare several deep learning enhanced techniques applied to X-ray and CT-scan medical images for the detection of COVID-19. In this paper, we used four powerful pre-trained CNN models, VGG16, DenseNet121, ResNet50,and ResNet152, for the COVID-19 CT-scan binary classification task. The proposed Fast.AI ResNet framework was designed to find out the best architecture, pre-processing, and training parameters for the models largely automatically. The accuracy and F1-score were both above 96% in the diagnosis of COVID-19 using CT-scan images. In addition, we applied transfer learning techniques to overcome the insufficient data and to improve the training time. The binary and multi-class classification of X-ray images tasks were performed by utilizing enhanced VGG16 deep transfer learning architecture. High accuracy of 99% was achieved by enhanced VGG16 in the detection of X-ray images from COVID-19 and pneumonia. The accuracy and validity of the algorithms were assessed on X-ray and CT-scan well-known public datasets. The proposed methods have better results for COVID-19 diagnosis than other related in literature. In our opinion, our work can help virologists and radiologists to make a better and faster diagnosis in the struggle against the outbreak of COVID-19.

Simulation of COVID-19 Propagation Scenarios in the Madrid Metropolitan Area.

This work presents simulation results for different mitigation and confinement scenarios for the propagation of COVID-19 in the metropolitan area of Madrid. These scenarios were implemented and tested using EpiGraph, an epidemic simulator which has been extended to simulate COVID-19 propagation. EpiGraph implements a social interaction model, which realistically captures a large number of characteristics of individuals and groups, as well as their individual interconnections, which are extracted from connection patterns in social networks. Besides the epidemiological and social interaction components, it also models people's short and long-distance movements as part of a transportation model. These features, together with the capacity to simulate scenarios with millions of individuals and apply different contention and mitigation measures, gives EpiGraph the potential to reproduce the COVID-19 evolution and study medium-term effects of the virus when applying mitigation methods. EpiGraph, obtains closely aligned infected and death curves related to the first wave in the Madrid metropolitan area, achieving similar seroprevalence values. We also show that selective lockdown for people over 60 would reduce the number of deaths. In addition, evaluate the effect of the use of face masks after the first wave, which shows that the percentage of people that comply with mask use is a crucial factor for mitigating the infection's spread.